Which way now tide is going to turn?

With lot many speculations finally everyone has agreed that the world economy has gone into recession. The symptoms were detected right at the time Bear Stern filed its bankruptcy, this was the time when market makers started manipulating the market and exited with their profits. Almost all of world’s biggest stock exchanges have lost 50% of their valuation; the steam has really taken off. Now the million dollar question is: “Is this it?” or still we have to see down side. Which side the tide is going to turn? Well so many speculations and yet no one can say it concretely that what is going to be outlook for the market going forward.

Once again with best of my abilities I am going to provide some inside on the market behavior.

1. Stock market: As we have seen that Indian stock market bled a lot and finally broke the 10K barrier last week. Question still remains unanswered that have we reached the bottom or still we have some blood left? I would say yes surely we have lot of blood to be seen in next few weeks. My immediate low levels for the Indian stock market would be around 9300-9400 which means down 600 points more. Reason is the condition of Indian financial sector: with all the turmoil around we haven’t yet seen any Indian firm filling for bailout. RBI and finance ministry is very smartly windowing the actual crisis by time to time advising on the status of Indian institutes on which I have my own doubts. I am sure that very soon we are going to see leaves falling off the tree, Indian institutes asking for a bailout from RBI. I am skeptical on the outlook of private Indian banks specially ICICI and HDFC since they have good numbers invested from FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) and FII (Foreign Institutional Investment). Also their exposure to the global market is well known. One must not forget that the US crisis started with the investment banks falling off and if you see Indian banks falling alike, we can only say that this is just the start of bottoming in Indian stock market. If that happens we should be ready to see levels at 6000 as well.


2. Where NOT to Invest: with all the blue chips biting the dust, Indian stock market still remains very attractive for investment but this should be very systematic investment. I was very bullish on the reliance pack earlier but after seeing the market conditions I would recommend investors to stay away from it. Money should be put in the stocks which are out of the circuit values. Stocks like power sector, PSU, some public banks are the attractive valuation. This is a golden opportunity to invest in midcap stocks. For a safe and steady investment in stock market best pack is FMCG. SBI, Tata pack, Reliance pack, L&T, metal pack, IT stocks and most importantly from the Realty pack are a complete no.


3. Stocks to invest: NMDC, BHEL, Axis Bank, NTPC, ONGC, RNRL (For short term of 6months), Balrampur Chini, Hero Honda, Maruti Udyog, Punj Lloyd, Marico. These stocks are going to be winner for this bearish market.

One need to understand that the fall we have witnessed in last 10 month is there to stay. With false rally which we have seen time to time and also started from today, only the market makers will make profits and the normal investor is still going to loose on daily basis. One good step SEBI has taken is by asking the FII to disclose their trading. Previously this wasn’t the case and they were manipulating the market. Best example of that is HDIL whose 25 lakh shares were sold by FII and now the stock is biting the dust trading just over 120. This is just an example there are lot many others. But now when the FII is restricted, transparency has been restored and traders will know the actual correction and valuation in any share.

I still think that the faith on the stock market of even big institute is not restored even after bottoming up to this level. It would take its own time and as per my understating for next 7-8 quarters we are going to see the range bound trading. World market is going under recession and this is a rare event. No B-School teaches how to deal with recession so even to the best of brains it would take quite a while for coming out with a win-win strategy. At such conditions a normal investor need not to get greedy while buying even a low valued blue chip as nothing is going to fly and give 200-300% returns. One needs to decide how much return realistically they want from the market. Even if the sentiment of the market gets positive you should exit once you realized your profit. All the smart investment firms are playing the same cards hence we are seeing the same range bound trading scenario every now and then. I still have my faith on the stock market as this still remains the most lucrative investment option but we must be cautious and exit once the targets are realized. This is going to give you better returns on each investment you make.

Happy trading!

Mumbai Meri Jaan!!!

How long it takes someone to fall in love?
Sometimes it's the first look but sometimes it takes long. I fell in love the very first time I entered the city of dreams…. "MY BELOVED MUMBAI". I have traversed the globe quite well in my last five years but never was the case that I got so affectionate any where. The life here is so fast paced that you literally live so mechanical that you seem to forget when clock ticks away and morning turns into night and night in morning.
It was never an easy task to match the pace of life here but hail to the work culture of TCS; I got enough time to adjust to the very best in the city though it wasn't always happy times for me at work. I couldn't simply forget those initially days when I learnt the toughest lessons of my professional life as I had no clue what I was doing. Thanks to the mentoring of my senior fellows, I finally managed to save myself with dignity. When I look back the most delighted moments were the one which I shared with my roommates and ILP friends in Mumbai. I am sure none of us could forget those times: party and movies at every weekend, long walks on the Marin drive, those endless discussions which had no subjects. I know with my turbulent work life I made my friends to make lot of fun as I was always in trouble due to some reason. I still remember them helping me in small bits and pieces which even when they will recall would make them start laughing. “Chhote” is what I was called and with obvious reasons, I had no clue what is to be done and when exactly. Transformation of my friends from single to committed, I had seen it all. I can still guess what people who worked under me think for me then, I am sure I then must have made an image of one of the rudest person, irrespective of all I am still friends with them and that ensured that I made up for the harsh behaviors of mine. I guess my friends were the real reason for my delighted stay in Mumbai, I never felt away from my family. They all were and still are part of my family.
Time passed by and the day came when I was at CST international airport all set to start my international career, my flight to New York which would change my life forever. I was in a new territory and again got lucky to find a family there as well. With my friends over there I didn't find it difficult to adjust and life started moving with the pace of New York City. I thoroughly enjoyed being there as much as I could. I came back to India for starting a new innings with different set of responsibilities. Then there was a big dull phase later which made me little frustrated and put question mark on my capabilities but luckily I again found the support and proved my point which enabled me to get back to US once again.
Life was moving smoothly until the inevitable happened. My whole world shattered and with no clue what to do I found my self back in India, helpless. I came across to the biggest sorrow of not only my life but to my entire family's. I lost my father, never imagined that things could turn so ugly that I had to stand and see him leaving us helplessly. I never thought that I would be required to take up my family's responsibilities so early and in this way but then I knew one thing that I could not afford allowing myself to be broken. I had to stand with my family in our most difficult times, I had to withstand the wind of emotions and walk with my family. I had to come out of the deep sorrow of losing and to give a new meaning to my life for my family. I am still trying to do this with my fullest effort but I know it will take long time to fulfill the ultimate lose we have gone through.
Ever since this my focus shifted completely to my family and that started making adverse effects in my professional life. That's when I decided to come out of my comfort zone and face the reality. I had to make a decision to rescue my professional life from falling apart and that's when I took one of the most important decisions I would have made in my recent past. I decided to quit TCS; this decision never came so easily. I had put lot of time introspecting myself to check if I would be able to go out and still be able to withstand wind of changes. There were lots of questions but I knew irrespective of all I had to come out of my comfort zone. I had made the final decision and to my own surprise I decided to move out of Mumbai, partially due to the fact that in my last five years of stay in Mumbai I had too many personal loses. This was a desperate attempt to revive my personal life.
When I look back to the past five years and try to summarize then surely I have more reasons to smile and cheer. Friends at work and off work made my stay unforgettable in Mumbai. My association with Matiree gave another meaning to life. I learnt how to respect life & people and how important is family. The moral lessons I have learnt in last five years are really going to stay with me. I came as a fresh bee in Mumbai, with lots of dreams to fulfill; not sure if I lived all of them to the fullest but one thing for sure “Some dreams are better to be unfulfilled”.
Its mixed feelings for me, I am happy and at the same time saddened, it's like being in the river and still thirsty. Sometimes words are hard to find, I am looking for that perfect line to let you know "Mumbai" is always on mind and will always remain there. I still remember when I was in train to Mumbai from Trivendrum, I really didn’t know anyone in that train when I boarded but when I reached Mumbai I found friends forever. I want to thanks each one of those who came across me in some or another way and helped me in gliding through the winds. I remember we had a theme song “It’s the time to Disco” which would be played every where we went, we seriously had a rocking time together being in each others company; at least I had. While I moved to Pune now and rest of my friend’s to different geographical location I truly wish from the bottom of my heart that one day shall come in our life when we all shall come together and rejoice the golden past we had.
I have just started another journey in the big ocean of life, at a place where I know nobody with lot of apprehension and uncertainty; I just want my luck to smile on me once again for the sake of old days and get me another family here as well to make another unforgettable stay.