The Myth of Stock Market

When was the last time you had put your money in the stock market this year?

If it was starting of this year in January then you must be cursing yourself for it, no prizes to guess Stock Market must be the prime accuse in ruining your portfolio. Indeed the slide we have witnessed in last six month is rare occurrence and when this slide is going to stop one can’t really tell. This makes life more uncomfortable living on the edge and in the clouds of uncertainty.

In last three year the stock market has witnessed phenomenal growth in both directions. Currently when the political dilemma in country is inducing fire to the uncertainty of it’s outcome, the oil price is reaching all time high touching 150 $/Barrel adding more insult to the injury. In given scenario is it fair to blame the stock market alone for losing money? Don’t the politicians who are fighting over their own interest on the N-deal should be blamed more?

Stock market is a dummy entity, it can’t think on its own, so accusing stock market ruining your hard earned money is absolutely insane!
Stock market is driven by entities like global market, production, weather, political influences in country and globally, capital goods etc. If any of these are going under pressure the result will be clearly seen on the stock market. We can see that in current situation all of the driving entities are under pressure therefore the stock market as well.

Correction is a term that can define the behavior of stock market in better aspects. When ever the market reaches a record high or record low, corrections are bound to happen. One must understand that stock market works in equilibrium. Which means the input and output should always remains the same. Don’t forget when ever your stocks are making profit there are other stocks losing out, so one’s profit is always other’s losing. There is never a win-win condition in the stock market for all the investors, so the question is when the market touched 22K; no one complained on making profit but now when we are 10K below that level everyone is crying over the stock market which is unfair.


One must also understand that investing in stock market is a full time job. You can’t take it for granted that a share would appreciate for 200% or similar just by it’s initial moves. Constant watch over the stocks and global market is required. For an example, if the dollar value is depreciating then IT index (It stocks) is bound to come down since the IT companies gets most of their revenue from US and such depreciation is going to make their margin of profit to go down and hence the performance of the company as well in the outlook.

The myth about stock market is that money put in the equities gives better returns and keep the liquidity in your portfolio but at the same time one must understand not only that investing your money is always important but also seeking help from experts to see your portfolio grow is even important. Let’s face it that just by watching stock reports and reading news articles doesn’t make you a stock market bull. Stock market is not a bank where your money is put as a fixed deposit and that would give you constant returns periodically. It’s a volatile environment which turns towards the wind, if the wind (Driving entities) is going up it will rise otherwise it will fall. Investing in stock market is similar to giving exams everyday, everyday new changes in wind impacts the stock market thus you need to revise on your outlook and get the correct investment strategy to gain profits. For this you need help from those who do this specific job of taking care of your investment. Just like you rely totally on bank personnel to take care of all your money and belongings, you need to show the same assurance on the traders and the stock market.

An uncertain mind can only create chaos in panic situations and that is what happens when ever market shakes, as a saying tells when the ship sinks the first to leave the ship are the mice. Don’t be a mouse; if you want to invest in stock market be bullish.



My Personal Opinion on where markets will go from here

Every time when market crashes like this, it looks for a bottom; this is called the technical bottom in terms of the figures on sensex. This time I feel that the technical bottom is 12,350- 12,380. If market cracks below this then the level could reach as below as 9000, given the uncertainty in the global market hold on oil and political scenario. Those who want to invest should hold for a long term (At least for a year or so) to see profits. The fact is: In the year 2008 India is the worst hit emerging market of the world, every single factor globally is impacting Indian market and in such situation those who think that they need liquidity and profit for their money on short term should stay away from stock market for better. The long term outlook for any blue chip stock is fine (Especially IT sector and Banking sector along with Communication), I see slowdown for the reality and capital goods sector in future. Indian economy is slowing for sure but the rate of growth would not decline drastically and we shall see a better tomorrow in terms of growth in the entire sectors. One can’t underestimate that Indian economy is the most lucrative economy for the globe at this point of time. The stock market turbulence is basically due to FII (Foreign Institutional Investors) pulling off their share from the market due to oil prices along with the US economy slow down.

It has been a trend in the US while the presidential election, there is always a slow down in the economy which should come to speed once the democrats take charge of the country. If one checks the figures of such slowdowns then you could make out that global slowdown were 1988, 1998 and now 2008 which are the presidential election in US.

As a disclaimer I would say that may be my analysis is partially or completely incorrect but the fact is India has become one of the most important market and economy for world and any slowdown in Indian economy would lead the other world to slowdown as well.

This reminds me one of my favorite books “Atlus Shrugged” authored by Ayn Rand.

“It stats that the world cycle is run through handful leaders, if these leaders go on strike the world cycle will be stopped (Symbolically called as “Atlus Shrugged”). The world cycle here is the world economy and India is now one of the leaders in world economy, if we go out on strike the world cycle will stop!

Is Cricket Really Over-Hyped?

In a country of 1 billion where the cultural diversity is so much that in every 100 Km there is a change of language but still one religion bonds all of them and it is called “Cricket”; Welcome to India.

Every child’s dream is to be in the national team and represent country on the international arena, a game which is not only a game but life for some. If things are so intense, emotions are so attached to the game then why is the case that still when it comes to the consistency on achievement we lack so much. Last month we celebrated 25th Anniversary of winning the world cup. It rather looks absurd to celebrate such occasion (Although remembering it is fine), with no offence to the team who won the greatest ever achievement in history of Indian cricket; it gives me a feeling that this was a celebration of an unachievable target which was achieved in a fluke. They were welcomed by that time Prime Minister Indira Gandhi on arrival with the world cup. Scenes were recreated after 24 years when the young Indian cricket team won the T-20 world cup, on arrival at Mumbai a huge parade took place from Airport to Wankhede stadium where the players were felicitated by the BCCI chief, the reception by the crowd was overwhelming. On the other hand the same time Indian hockey team won the trophy, the game which was once upon a time trade mark of India, our national game which has won the maximum number of gold medals for the country in the Olympics as well as in the world cup hockey but still the team hardly had someone waiting for them to even congratulate. Same is case with Grand master of chess Vishwanathan Anand who won the international grand master’s title but was out of fan at arrival to his home soil.

Now the question arises: Why it’s only about cricket, why it’s only cricket which gets attraction from the countries best sectors (Entertainment, advertising, etc)? I often ask this question to myself and start criticizing the game and the players involved in cricket.

In many ways the work of critics is easy; they risk very little and enjoy a position over those who offer up level self odd judgment. Critics thrive on negative criticism which is found to be right and to read, although the bitter truth critics must face is that even an average piece of junk can be more meaningful than their criticism designating it so.

I strongly feel sometimes critics should truly risk something in the discovery and in the defense of new. World often is unkind to the new talents, new creations. New needs friend. When Greg Chappell coached India and strived towards getting young players in the team and creating all-rounder he was bitterly criticized, the wrath of losing the world cup in the first round became the reason for him to leave the job but last year we all witnessed the same strategy of young guns winning the T-20 cup for India. From then I saw something new and that too from few unexpected young players and to say that both the team and players are not worth praise for their consistent performance would be a gross understatement, they have rocked me and every sports lover to their core. In the past critics have made lots of criticism on Indian cricket team but I realize only now what it means to be a part a new revolution, one can not change the fact that cricket is not just a game in this country; it’s a religion but still the final triumph lies in the hand of leader. It was the steady leadership of Kapil Dev 25 year’s back which won the world cup for us and this time it was Dhoni who brought back the glory home. Don’t forget it was the great stewardship of Dhyan Chand which brought all (At least most) of the hockey glory to India. It was the time when cricket was not even in the radar of common man. Problem lies in the perspective of a common man in the country, when ever we see that someone is doing very well, instead of appreciating the achievement we starts criticizing them to hide our own failures. One mustn’t forget that Indian hockey team didn’t even qualify for the world cup this time barring all the facilities they have been provided. It is in the hands of players who play the game to make it popular and its job of the leader to make the best out of team. If this wasn’t the case then Sachin Tendulkar the greatest cricketer of all time would have been the best of caption but fact is India failed bitterly under his captaincy.
Let’s just face the fact that not everyone can become a great sportsman but a great sportsman can come from anywhere in this case from Ranchi.

Dhoni’s team is proving this point over and over again. I wish to see more and more glory for his team and future of other sports in the country in coming years.

Mein Bhi Jaanu Tu Bhi Jaane

I knew her from really long, we were best of friends for all these years. People talked about both of us as a pair but we didn’t care for them and went along as the best buddies. A boy and a girl both “Friends forever”! Does this really exist?
Before watching the movie I was well aware of the very fact that two protagonists of the movie can’t be friends forever, I just wanted to see their interception of this fact. It’s official that Jai and Aditi are now the new heartthrob for the Youngistaan, a refreshing movie having blend of “Socha Na Tha” and “Dil Chahta Hai” and does the same magic. It also reminds me the story telling plot of “Chalte Chalte” where the story is being done by the friends! Story goes along smoothly with no unexpected twist and turn and ends on a happy note.
Both Imran and Genelia have done justice to their roles and with lack of acting skills they were able to show the immaturity and confusion these two characters should have. Other characters also played their roles convincingly. Paresh Rawal is refreshing in his new role (I am fed up of seeing him playing type casted roles in Priyadarshan flicks). Comic timing is the life of movie which makes it watchable. Even with the cameo of Arbaaz and Sohail makes it hilarious especially at the end of movie. The small bits and pieces of such well crafted scenes make this movie a fun to watch .The idea of three conditions to be fulfilled before becoming a Man of Ranjhore’s Rathod is hilarious.
The life of movie is the music, the tunes let you stand on your feet and move your body with the characters, brilliant cinematography which also tells you it doesn’t take an abroad trip to shoot an eye catching song. The pace at which the movie runs will always keep you on your seat just like the character (well written) in the movie that the story is being told. The girl Mala (The airhostess girl friend) does an amazing job to show her emotions and involvement in the story just as the audience would do while watching movie. This shows and confirms that it’s up to the story teller to let you involve or get you of your seat the very next minute (Great story telling by the writer and director Abbas Tyrewala) . Nasir and Ratna’s pair steals the show whenever they come on screen, again reminds me one of most popular pair on silver screen Ashok Sharaf and Priya Tendulkar (in Hum Panch). All in all it’s highly recommended to those who like good music along with soft romantic movie.
At the end,
Question: Which movie did I see?
Answer: Jaane Tu Ya Jaane Na.
Meghna’s Answer: On a silver screen Romeo and Juliet playing “Comedy of Errors”!!