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Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Outlook For Next Year Market

Exactly a year back on the same day I was calculating my profit from my portfolio, it was hugh...very hugh. Things can turn around quicky, I knew but the plunge I took this year has opened my eyes, mind and squeezed my pocket as well.

The turnmoil which whiped out eventually every big dream this year is going to be termed as "The first recession" for the 21st century. Everyday came with a new surpise which was bizarre and unprecedented than it's previous one. No prediction, no furmula not even any strategy can be formulated to overpower this catastrophe. While US wind up it's year at all time low, there is lot more blood to be shaded which is eventually going to comeout next year first quater onwards. There is lot of pain left and it will grow as cancer next year capturing eventually everyone and the hostality surrounding would be so engrossing that even the bravest soilders would be afraid to face the music. Not long while ago, Ex-CEO Citi group Price quoted "Everyone Dances to the music". While making this comment he forgot to add "On dirty tune". Rise and fall debacle of investment banking is the best example of how greed can corrupt you to the core where you are even ready to endanger yourself for making money. My personal feeling and understanding is the crisis world is currently facing is largely due to investment banks and the real estate bubble blast in US market. Investment banks traded the most toxic assets as a lucrative instrument for making quick money to a layman that eventually intoxicated entire economy. Although the era of investment banks is finally over and big bulls like Bear Strean and Lehman Brothers have lost their existance but what is left there behind are numerous unanswered question from the investors who lost their money, faith and everything.

Everytime when government comes to rescue, 'intelligent people' quote..."It's too late and too little", the question here to be asked to this elite class is: what were they doing when the curtains on the happy days were falling, didn't they see it coming? Wasn't that the right time to come and raise voice against the things which were ethically wrong. These smart people who are given the freedom to speak are nothing but small time jugglers who dances to the flow of wind. Criticism is the easiest way to pass-on blame on someone else but taking up a step and withstand the opposite force takes high moral values and ethics which unfortunately no one posses. These unfortunate times in which we are living is due to the power is given in hands of people who are morally and ethically corrupted. A corrupted mind can only dig grave for others but they always forget that at the end of the day they are living on the edge of same grave which would surely going to become their eternity, their last resort for hideout. Unfortunate but a naked truth!

Finally the question arises amidst all this what's the outlook for next year, is it going to get to the great recession of 1929 or even worst? The answer lies in the retrospect of the wrong steps and action taken in past. If the lesson learnt from this one are not imparted in the measure taking process for future then we are going deeper and deeper into trouble. The time has come when everyone needs to start being ethical and have some moral values, the onlyway to fight against this beast. one thing is for sure that next year we are going to see many surpises which surely are going to jitter a common man. It's crystal clear that there is going to be a big shift of power and it is going to shake everyone who is directly or indirectly related to US. Be ready to face the music and dance on the dirty tune.

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